Interactive Swing Simulator
Adjust the vote share swing to see how it might impact the final seat tally. Baseline: Axis My India (UDF 44%, LDF 39%).
Consolidated Agency Data
Seat Projection Comparison – All Agencies (Midpoints)
| Agency / Partner | 🔴 LDF Seats | 🔵 UDF Seats | 🟠 NDA Seats | ⚫ Others | Projected Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axis My India India Today / AajTak |
49–62 | 78–90 | 0–3 | — | UDF ✓ |
| People's Pulse Independent |
55–65 | 75–85 | 0–3 | — | UDF ✓ |
| Matrize India TV |
60–65 | 70–75 | 3–5 | 2–4 | UDF ✓ |
| CVoter / Manorama News Manorama News |
~55+ | ~75+ | Low | — | UDF ✓ |
| Zee News / Zeenia AI Zee News |
58–70 | 63–74 | 2–5 | — | UDF (tight) |
| 📊 AVERAGE (Midpoints) | ~57 | ~77 | ~2 | ~2 | UDF leads |
Seat Share – Average of Polls
Vote Share Projection (Axis My India)
Projected Vote Share (Axis My India)
Vote Share: UDF projected at 44–45% vs LDF at 37–39%. NDA at 14%. UDF leads across most age groups, suggesting a broad voter swing. Male vote share shows UDF at 45% and LDF at 37%; among female voters UDF leads 43% to 41%.
CM Preference: Pinarayi Vijayan remains the most preferred CM candidate at 33%, followed by VD Satheesan at 21%, and 11% preferring any UDF candidate.
Preferred CM Candidate (Axis My India)
Kasaragod (5 seats) North
Kannur (11 seats) LDF Bastion
Kozhikode (13 seats)
Malappuram (16 seats)
Wayanad (3 seats)
Palakkad (12 seats)
Thrissur (13 seats)
Ernakulam (14 seats)
Idukki (5 seats)
Kottayam (9 seats)
Alappuzha (9 seats)
Pathanamthitta (5 seats)
Kollam (11 seats)
Thiruvananthapuram (14 seats)
Matrize gives the most optimistic prediction for the NDA (3–5 seats) and shows the closest margin between UDF and LDF among all agencies. The UDF's projected 72-seat midpoint places it just above the majority mark, suggesting a competitive outcome.
The Zee/Zeenia AI prediction is the most conservative, showing a tight contest where UDF ranges could fall short of a clear majority in the pessimistic scenario (63 seats). It also acknowledges Pinarayi Vijayan as the leading CM choice per voter preference — suggesting incumbency is not uniformly negative for LDF.